St. Pauli 1-1 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 27 Jan 2026

📅27/01/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.04
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
50%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
3%
2/2
27%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
21%
+1.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
50%
Away Win
53%
-3.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.8pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 57%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
1.28/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.05
-24% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +39%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
210 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 79%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
21.9 Crosses 15.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
3W-1D-2L
AWAY RB Leipzig
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.85 xG 1.31
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
276 Passes 437
68% Pass Accuracy 79%
31 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.02.2025 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-0 HT 2-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
29.10.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-2 HT 3-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AFK
22.09.2024 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-0 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
12.02.2016 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL2
23.08.2015 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 0-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
03.05.2015 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
1-1
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.45 xG 1.04
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
398 Passes 508
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 34
14 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli and RB Leipzig couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was RB Leipzig at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, St. Pauli had 46% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 54%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 1.45 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pauli had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for St. Pauli and 1.00 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig?

St. Pauli 1-1 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 27/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated an RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 23%, draw 27%, RB Leipzig 50%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (RB Leipzig), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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