Porto 3-1 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 27 Feb 2026

Porto
3-1 HT 1-0
Arouca
📅27/02/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
85%
1.25
Draw
10%
5.28
Away
5%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.03
Over
59%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.45
No
61%
1.48
Total Goals
0-1
23%
3.57
2-3
43%
1.78
4-5
24%
3.15
6+
10%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.57 — our 23% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
53%
1.41
1/2
2%
34.0
1/X
3%
27.0
X/1
22%
3.45
X/2
2%
23.1
X/X
4%
7.46
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
2%
22.65
2/X
3%
31.5
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto The Market 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca The Market 11%
+2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
2.33/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/2.25
+2% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -15%
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 2
469 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 74%
34.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
20.9 Crosses 12.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Arouca
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.43 xG 0.68
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
418 Passes 278
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
38 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2025 Arouca Arouca 0-4 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
01.03.2025 Arouca Arouca 0-2 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
29.09.2024 Porto Porto 4-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
12.02.2024 Arouca Arouca 3-2 HT 2-1 Porto Porto POR
03.09.2023 Porto Porto 1-1 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
08.05.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
3-1
AWAY Arouca
3.34 xG 0.31
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
416 Passes 305
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 4
22 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Porto vs Arouca
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Porto got the better of Arouca 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 85%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals card split: over 2.5 goals (59%) came in, no to both teams scoring (61%) didn't.

On the day, Porto had 56% of the ball to Arouca's 44%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 3.34 to 0.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Porto and 0.67 for Arouca.

Porto vs Arouca Result & Final Score

Porto 3-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 27/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Porto vs Arouca Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 85%, with the full match-result split Porto 85%, draw 10%, Arouca 5%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
27 Feb 2026
23:45 Sporting CP vs Estoril Analysis →