Oulu 1-2 VPS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 27 Apr 2024

Oulu
1-2 HT 0-0
VPS
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2024

Oulu vs VPS Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.39
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.5
6+ Goals
9%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 30% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.42
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
11%
6.33
X/2
14%
5.0
X/X
14%
4.6
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
22%
3.16
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-1.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.9pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Oulu v VPS — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oulu EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY VPS EU Bookmakers 45%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +29%
1.23/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/0.65
-23% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +95%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
319 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
14.3 Crosses 12.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.6

Oulu vs VPS Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oulu
1W-3D-2L
AWAY VPS
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.87 xG 0.91
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
448 Passes 267
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.02.2024 VPS VPS 1-1 HT 1-0 Oulu Oulu FLK
15.07.2023 VPS VPS 3-0 HT 1-0 Oulu Oulu FİN
22.06.2023 Oulu Oulu 0-0 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİK
13.05.2023 Oulu Oulu 2-1 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
11.02.2023 Oulu Oulu 1-1 HT 1-1 VPS VPS FLK
22.10.2022 Oulu Oulu 0-1 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN

Oulu 1-2 VPS — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oulu
1-2
AWAY VPS
0.61 xG 1.83
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 10
371 Passes 317
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 35
11 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Oulu vs VPS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VPS squeezed past Oulu 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had VPS as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Oulu had 53% of the ball to VPS's 47%, shots finished 7-17, expected goals 0.61 to 1.83 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold VPS's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, VPS led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Oulu and 1.17 for VPS.

What was the final score of Oulu vs VPS?

Oulu 1-2 VPS in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oulu vs VPS?

Before kick-off our model rated an VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Oulu 30%, draw 28%, VPS 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VPS) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (VPS) ✗ Under 2.5
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