Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.1
Over 2.5
46%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.96
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
21%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.59
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.96 — our 30% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.6
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
5%
13.25
X/1
18%
4.78
X/2
8%
7.85
X/X
15%
5.44
2/1
7%
22.45
2/2
12%
5.55
2/X
8%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.6pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.6pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.3pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -15%
1.63/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.85
+4% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -12%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
421 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 75%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
19.0 Crosses 14.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bournemouth
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Manchester United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.36 xG 1.81
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
278 Passes 503
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 40
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
22.12.2024 Manchester United Manchester United 0-3 HT 0-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
13.04.2024 Bournemouth Bournemouth 2-2 HT 2-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
09.12.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 0-3 HT 0-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
20.05.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-1 HT 0-1 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
03.01.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 3-0 HT 1-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
04.07.2020 Manchester United Manchester United 5-2 HT 3-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bournemouth
1-1
AWAY Manchester United
0.53 xG 2.52
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 25
1 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 10
207 Passes 390
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 44
17 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bournemouth vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bournemouth and Manchester United couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Bournemouth at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Bournemouth had 38% of the ball to Manchester United's 62%, shots finished 8-25, expected goals 0.53 to 2.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bournemouth and 1.83 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Bournemouth vs Manchester United?

Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester United in the England - Premier League on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bournemouth vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Bournemouth 45%, draw 29%, Manchester United 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bournemouth), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bournemouth) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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İNP More England - Premier League
27 Apr 2025
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