Malaga 1-0 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.08
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.33
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.43
6+ Goals
11%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 30% vs market 24.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.17
1/2
11%
25.5
1/X
9%
13.35
X/1
10%
7.22
X/2
14%
5.03
X/X
14%
4.67
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.95
2/X
6%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+0.5pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.4pp
41%
Away Win
44%
-2.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malaga EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 48%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +44% / +44%
1.08/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/1.34
-34% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +147% / -27%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
170 · 49% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 214 · 84%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
20.0 Crosses 13.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malaga
3W-0D-3L
AWAY CD Castellon
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.08 xG 0.77
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
285 Passes 370
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.12.2024 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-0 HT 1-0 Malaga Malaga İS2
21.01.2024 Malaga Malaga 0-1 HT 0-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS3
26.08.2023 CD Castellon CD Castellon 2-1 HT 1-1 Malaga Malaga İS3
30.05.2021 Malaga Malaga 3-0 HT 1-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
19.09.2020 CD Castellon CD Castellon 0-1 HT 0-1 Malaga Malaga İS2
17.02.2008 Malaga Malaga 3-1 HT 2-0 CD Castellon CD Castellon İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malaga
1-0
AWAY CD Castellon
1.16 xG 1.04
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 6
186 Passes 327
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 24
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Malaga vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malaga nicked a narrow win over CD Castellon 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was CD Castellon at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Malaga had 39% of the ball to CD Castellon's 61%, shots finished 6-9, expected goals 1.16 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Malaga and 1.00 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Malaga vs CD Castellon?

Malaga 1-0 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malaga vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated an CD Castellon win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Malaga 30%, draw 30%, CD Castellon 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (CD Castellon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (CD Castellon) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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