Alfaro 2-4 Deportivo Alaves II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
37%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
61%
1.6
Over
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
35%
2-3
41%
4-5
16%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
11%
1/X
9%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.6pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+2.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.4pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alfaro EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Alaves II EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
0.89/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.04
-20% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
416 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alfaro
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Alaves II
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
15.12.2024 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II 0-1 HT 0-0 Alfaro Alfaro İS4
09.04.2023 Alfaro Alfaro 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II İS4
27.11.2022 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II 1-0 HT 1-0 Alfaro Alfaro İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alfaro
2-4
AWAY Deportivo Alaves II
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alfaro vs Deportivo Alaves II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Alaves II saw off Alfaro 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Deportivo Alaves II found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alfaro had 58% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves II's 42%, shots finished 15-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Alfaro and 0.67 for Deportivo Alaves II.

What was the final score of Alfaro vs Deportivo Alaves II?

Alfaro 2-4 Deportivo Alaves II in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alfaro vs Deportivo Alaves II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Deportivo Alaves II win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Alfaro 35%, draw 28%, Deportivo Alaves II 37%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Alaves II) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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