Don Benito 2-4 UCAM Murcia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.34
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
50%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.56
Over
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.44
No
56%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2-3
43%
4-5
16%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
16%
+5.1pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.8pp
50%
Away Win
60%
-9.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
37%
+6.8pp
56%
BTTS No
63%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Don Benito EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY UCAM Murcia EU Bookmakers 64%
-29% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
0.80/1.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-3% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -28%
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
223 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 426 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Don Benito
0W-0D-2L
AWAY UCAM Murcia
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.12.2024 UCAM Murcia UCAM Murcia 2-0 HT 1-0 Don Benito Don Benito İS4
05.01.2020 Don Benito Don Benito 1-3 HT 0-2 UCAM Murcia UCAM Murcia İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Don Benito
2-4
AWAY UCAM Murcia
28% Ball Possession 72%
5 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Don Benito vs UCAM Murcia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UCAM Murcia beat Don Benito 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had UCAM Murcia as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Don Benito had 28% of the ball to UCAM Murcia's 72%, shots finished 5-14.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, UCAM Murcia led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Don Benito and 2.50 for UCAM Murcia.

What was the final score of Don Benito vs UCAM Murcia?

Don Benito 2-4 UCAM Murcia in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Don Benito vs UCAM Murcia?

Before kick-off our model rated an UCAM Murcia win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Don Benito 21%, draw 29%, UCAM Murcia 50%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UCAM Murcia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (UCAM Murcia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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