Illescas 2-1 Union Adarve — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
35%
3.35
Away
31%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
66%
1.62
Over
34%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2-3
42%
4-5
14%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
6%
X/X
26%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+6.4pp
35%
Draw
27%
+8.6pp
31%
Away Win
46%
-15.0pp
66%
Under 2.5
58%
+7.7pp
34%
Over 2.5
42%
-7.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-6.7pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Illescas EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Adarve EU Bookmakers 49%
+9% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
0.95/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.14
+1% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
275 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Illescas
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Union Adarve
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
15.12.2024 Union Adarve Union Adarve 0-0 HT 0-0 Illescas İS4
24.03.2024 Union Adarve Union Adarve 2-0 HT 0-0 Illescas İS4
11.11.2023 Illescas 2-1 HT 1-0 Union Adarve Union Adarve İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Illescas
2-1
AWAY Union Adarve
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Illescas vs Union Adarve
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Illescas squeezed past Union Adarve 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 35% / 31% — and on the day Illescas made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Illescas had 52% of the ball to Union Adarve's 48%, shots finished 10-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Illescas and 1.00 for Union Adarve.

What was the final score of Illescas vs Union Adarve?

Illescas 2-1 Union Adarve in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Illescas vs Union Adarve?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Illescas 34%, draw 35%, Union Adarve 31%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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