Subiza 2-2 Gernika — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
53%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
1.86
Over
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No Pick
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
44%
4-5
22%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
32%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
21%
+1.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.5pp
53%
Away Win
55%
-2.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.9pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Subiza EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Gernika EU Bookmakers 60%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
0.62/2.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/0.74
-29% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / +9%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
264 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Subiza
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Gernika
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
14.12.2024 Gernika Gernika 1-1 HT 1-0 Subiza İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Subiza
2-2
AWAY Gernika
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Subiza vs Gernika
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Subiza and Gernika shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Gernika at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Subiza had 57% of the ball to Gernika's 43%, shots finished 17-8.

What was the final score of Subiza vs Gernika?

Subiza 2-2 Gernika in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Subiza vs Gernika?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gernika win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Subiza 23%, draw 24%, Gernika 53%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gernika) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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