Ascoli 1-2 Legnago Salus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.97
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.62
6+ Goals
8%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 29% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.4pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ascoli EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Legnago Salus EU Bookmakers 31%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +17%
0.66/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/0.95
-51% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +31%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ascoli
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Legnago Salus
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 3
14.12.2024 Legnago Salus Legnago Salus 0-1 HT 0-1 Ascoli Ascoli İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ascoli
1-2
AWAY Legnago Salus
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ascoli vs Legnago Salus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legnago Salus nicked a narrow win over Ascoli 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Ascoli at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Ascoli had 53% of the ball to Legnago Salus's 47%, shots finished 12-15.

What was the final score of Ascoli vs Legnago Salus?

Ascoli 1-2 Legnago Salus in the Italy - Serie C on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ascoli vs Legnago Salus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ascoli win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ascoli 44%, draw 27%, Legnago Salus 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ascoli) ✗ Under 2.5
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