Perugia 3-0 Pontedera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.68
Over 2.5
39%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.85
No
59%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.64
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.08
6+ Goals
9%
20.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.64 — our 35% vs market 30.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-3.6pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.9pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+1.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
50%
-9.5pp
59%
BTTS No
50%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perugia EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Pontedera EU Bookmakers 37%
+15% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
1.78/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.22
+46% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
259 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 67%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perugia
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Pontedera
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.12.2024 Pontedera Pontedera 2-1 HT 1-0 Perugia Perugia İTC
27.01.2024 Pontedera Pontedera 2-3 HT 0-2 Perugia Perugia İTC
19.09.2023 Perugia Perugia 1-1 HT 0-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
08.12.2013 Pontedera Pontedera 0-1 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perugia
3-0
AWAY Pontedera
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
POST-MATCH Perugia vs Pontedera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Perugia ran out comfortable winners over Pontedera 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Perugia made the difference. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while under 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

On the day, Perugia had 54% of the ball to Pontedera's 46%, shots finished 20-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Perugia had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Perugia and 1.25 for Pontedera.

What was the final score of Perugia vs Pontedera?

Perugia 3-0 Pontedera in the Italy - Serie C on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perugia vs Pontedera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Perugia win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Perugia 36%, draw 29%, Pontedera 34%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Perugia), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Perugia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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