Columbus Crew 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.74
Over 2.5
62%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.1
2-3 Goals
40%
2.09
4-5 Goals
26%
2.45
6+ Goals
15%
5.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.79
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.65
X/1
14%
4.36
X/2
8%
12.75
X/X
11%
7.8
2/1
8%
18.35
2/2
8%
8.93
2/X
5%
17.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 35.0 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
63%
-6.2pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.6pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.5pp
38%
Under 2.5
33%
+5.3pp
62%
Over 2.5
67%
-5.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.7pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Columbus Crew EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -8%
1.70/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/2.03
+0% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
421 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 81%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
18.6 Crosses 15.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Columbus Crew
2W-2D-2L
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.90 xG 1.39
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
362 Passes 364
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.03.2022 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 3-3 HT 1-1 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
04.08.2019 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 1-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
29.04.2018 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 2-1 HT 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
06.08.2017 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 HT 1-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
28.08.2016 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 2-0 HT 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
17.05.2015 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 2-0 HT 0-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Columbus Crew
2-1
AWAY San Jose Earthquakes
1.87 xG 2.24
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 2
473 Passes 244
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
31 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Columbus Crew vs San Jose Earthquakes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Columbus Crew nicked a narrow win over San Jose Earthquakes 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Columbus Crew as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Columbus Crew had 62% of the ball to San Jose Earthquakes's 38%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.87 to 2.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Columbus Crew and 1.50 for San Jose Earthquakes.

What was the final score of Columbus Crew vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Columbus Crew 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes in the USA - Major League on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Columbus Crew vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Columbus Crew win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Columbus Crew 57%, draw 21%, San Jose Earthquakes 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Columbus Crew), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Columbus Crew) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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