Ceara 1-1 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 27 Apr 2025

Ceara
1-1 HT 1-1
Sao Paulo
📅27/04/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Ceara vs Sao Paulo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.25
Draw
30%
2.83
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.44
Over 2.5
40%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.19
No
59%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.08
2-3 Goals
37%
1.89
4-5 Goals
19%
6.63
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.46
1/2
10%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.5
X/1
19%
4.8
X/2
7%
6.64
X/X
15%
3.32
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
9%
5.69
2/X
7%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
41%
+3.0pp
30%
Draw
32%
-1.5pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-1.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
66%
-5.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
34%
+5.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.2pp
59%
BTTS No
58%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ceara v Sao Paulo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceara EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.43/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.24
-12% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +7%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
319 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
22.8 Crosses 16.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9

Ceara vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceara
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.87 xG 1.82
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
235 Passes 349
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
18.09.2022 Ceara Ceara 0-2 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
11.08.2022 Ceara Ceara 2-1 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo CON CSA
04.08.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara CON CSA
29.05.2022 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-2 HT 2-1 Ceara Ceara BR1
15.10.2021 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-1 HT 0-1 Ceara Ceara BR1
28.06.2021 Ceara Ceara 1-1 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1

Ceara 1-1 Sao Paulo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceara
1-1
AWAY Sao Paulo
0.50 xG 0.81
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
236 Passes 384
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Ceara vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara and Sao Paulo couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Ceara at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Ceara had 40% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 60%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.50 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Ceara and 1.33 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Ceara vs Sao Paulo?

Ceara 1-1 Sao Paulo in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceara vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceara win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ceara 44%, draw 30%, Sao Paulo 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ceara), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ceara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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