Botev Plovdiv 1-1 PFC Beroe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
27%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
11%
2/2
15%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.4pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.0pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.8pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY PFC Beroe EU Bookmakers 28%
-27% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
0.38/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/0.95
-71% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
300 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botev Plovdiv
3W-1D-0L
AWAY PFC Beroe
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
02.04.2025 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-0 HT 0-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
14.09.2024 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 0-1 HT 0-1 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
04.04.2024 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 0-3 HT 0-2 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
30.09.2023 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 4-1 HT 1-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botev Plovdiv
1-1
AWAY PFC Beroe
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Botev Plovdiv vs PFC Beroe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botev Plovdiv and PFC Beroe couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Botev Plovdiv at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Botev Plovdiv had 51% of the ball to PFC Beroe's 49%, shots finished 12-15.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Botev Plovdiv had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 0.25 for PFC Beroe.

What was the final score of Botev Plovdiv vs PFC Beroe?

Botev Plovdiv 1-1 PFC Beroe in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botev Plovdiv vs PFC Beroe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botev Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Botev Plovdiv 44%, draw 30%, PFC Beroe 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Botev Plovdiv), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Botev Plovdiv) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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