Portimonense vs Tondela Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Portimonense v Tondela — Team-Based Signals
Portimonense vs Tondela Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 1-0
Tondela
POR
0-3
HT 0-2
Portimonense
POR
3-0
HT 2-0
Tondela
POR
1-0
HT 1-0
Portimonense
POR
0-1
HT 0-1
Tondela
POR
Portimonense 2-2 Tondela — Actual Match Statistics
Portimonense and Tondela shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Tondela at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Portimonense had 43% of the ball to Tondela's 57%, shots finished 17-18, expected goals 2.97 to 1.18.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tondela led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Portimonense and 1.00 for Tondela.
What was the final score of Portimonense vs Tondela?
Portimonense 2-2 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Portimonense vs Tondela?
Before kick-off our model rated an Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 28%, draw 25%, Tondela 47%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.