Leixoes 3-1 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 27 Apr 2025

📅27/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
33%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.63
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
4.09
6+ Goals
9%
20.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 34% vs market 30.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
49%
-11.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
33%
Away Win
24%
+9.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.6pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leixoes EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 27%
-11% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +10%
1.25/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.38
-5% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
315 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.6 Crosses 16.6
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leixoes
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Penafiel
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.17 xG 1.58
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
312 Passes 220
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
27 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.12.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 3-1 HT 2-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
21.01.2024 Leixoes Leixoes 0-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
13.08.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 3-0 HT 1-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
29.01.2023 Leixoes Leixoes 2-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
08.08.2022 Penafiel Penafiel 0-0 HT 0-0 Leixoes Leixoes POR2
01.04.2022 Leixoes Leixoes 0-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leixoes
3-1
AWAY Penafiel
1.98 xG 1.06
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 0
168 Passes 172
69% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Leixoes vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leixoes got the better of Penafiel 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 33% — and on the day Leixoes made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Leixoes had 48% of the ball to Penafiel's 52%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 1.98 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Leixoes and 1.50 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Leixoes vs Penafiel?

Leixoes 3-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 27/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leixoes vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leixoes win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Leixoes 38%, draw 29%, Penafiel 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leixoes) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leixoes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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