Fluminense vs Chapecoense Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Fluminense v Chapecoense — Team-Based Signals
Fluminense vs Chapecoense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 0-0
Chapecoense
BR1
1-2
HT 0-2
Fluminense
BR1
1-1
HT 0-1
Chapecoense
BR1
1-1
HT 1-0
Fluminense
BR1
1-2
HT 0-2
Fluminense
BR1
3-1
HT 2-0
Chapecoense
BR1
Fluminense 2-1 Chapecoense — Actual Match Statistics
Fluminense squeezed past Chapecoense 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 70%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Fluminense had 71% of the ball to Chapecoense's 29%, shots finished 30-8, expected goals 2.84 to 0.47 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fluminense's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Fluminense and 0.83 for Chapecoense.
What was the final score of Fluminense vs Chapecoense?
Fluminense 2-1 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Chapecoense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 70%, draw 20%, Chapecoense 10%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.