Atletico Paranaense 3-1 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 27 Apr 2026

📅27/04/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
17%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.64
Over 2.5
43%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.54
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.28
6+ Goals
8%
22.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.12
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
7%
15.75
X/1
26%
3.88
X/2
7%
10.2
X/X
14%
4.43
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
6%
9.19
2/X
5%
17.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
57%
+0.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
17%
Away Win
18%
-0.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
57%
-0.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
43%
+0.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.4pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -7%
1.59/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.39
+15% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
380 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 78%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
22.4 Crosses 17.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Vitoria
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.44 xG 1.14
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
333 Passes 374
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.11.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-2 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
01.07.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
18.11.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
29.07.2018 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 4-0 HT 3-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
20.10.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 2-3 HT 1-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
25.06.2017 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 4-1 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
3-1
AWAY Vitoria
3.63 xG 0.72
60% Ball Possession 40%
23 Total Shots 7
11 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
315 Passes 182
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 11
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense saw off Vitoria 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Paranaense as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 60% of the ball to Vitoria's 40%, shots finished 23-7, expected goals 3.63 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.00 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria?

Atletico Paranaense 3-1 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 57%, draw 26%, Vitoria 17%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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