Al Ahly 1-1 Zamalek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF - Super Cup, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.96
No
44%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.9
2-3 Goals EV+ ✓
53%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
4.02
6+ Goals
5%
18.7
Value flag · 2-3 Goals at 1.77 — our 53% vs market 49.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.22
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✓
9%
15.8
X/1
16%
3.76
X/2
10%
9.43
X/X
13%
4.72
2/1
3%
25.5
2/2
14%
7.9
2/X
4%
16.65
Value flag · 1/X at 15.8 — our 9% vs market 3.5%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-7.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
47%
+9.5pp
44%
BTTS No
53%
-9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Zamalek EU Bookmakers 23%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
558 · 89% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 76%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
24.7 Crosses
3.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahly
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Zamalek
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.09 xG 0.88
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
346 Passes 342
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 14
11 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
25.06.2024 Al Ahly Al Ahly 2-0 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
15.04.2024 Zamalek Zamalek 2-1 HT 1-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
08.03.2024 Zamalek Zamalek 0-2 HT 0-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSRK
13.07.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 4-1 HT 3-0 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
21.01.2023 Zamalek Zamalek 0-3 HT 0-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
28.10.2022 Zamalek Zamalek 0-2 HT 0-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSRSK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahly
1-1
AWAY Zamalek
1.16 xG 1.02
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 3
298 Passes 364
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
7 Box Touches 16
4 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al Ahly vs Zamalek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahly and Zamalek shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Al Ahly at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Al Ahly had 44% of the ball to Zamalek's 56%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 1.16 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahly had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Al Ahly and 0.50 for Zamalek.

What was the final score of Al Ahly vs Zamalek?

Al Ahly 1-1 Zamalek in the CAF - Super Cup on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahly vs Zamalek?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Al Ahly 47%, draw 26%, Zamalek 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Ahly) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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