Afan Lido 3-3 Carmarthen Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
49%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.61
Over 2.5
52%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
26%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
25%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.5pp
49%
Away Win
53%
-4.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
35%
+13.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
65%
-13.7pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-9.9pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Afan Lido EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Carmarthen Town EU Bookmakers 57%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.90/2.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/1.05
+31% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +25%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Afan Lido
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Carmarthen Town
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
5 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
02.02.2024 Afan Lido Afan Lido 4-1 HT 2-1 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALFAW
30.09.2023 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 3-3 HT 1-0 Afan Lido Afan Lido GALFAW
03.02.2023 Afan Lido Afan Lido 3-0 HT 2-0 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALFAW
01.10.2022 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 0-3 HT 0-2 Afan Lido Afan Lido GALFAW
18.12.2021 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 4-0 HT 0-0 Afan Lido Afan Lido GALFAW
30.10.2021 Afan Lido Afan Lido 0-4 HT 0-0 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALFAW
POST-MATCH Afan Lido vs Carmarthen Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Afan Lido and Carmarthen Town couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 0-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Carmarthen Town at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Afan Lido had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Afan Lido and 2.00 for Carmarthen Town.

What was the final score of Afan Lido vs Carmarthen Town?

Afan Lido 3-3 Carmarthen Town in the Wales - FAW Championship on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Afan Lido vs Carmarthen Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Carmarthen Town win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Afan Lido 24%, draw 27%, Carmarthen Town 49%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Carmarthen Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carmarthen Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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