Afan Lido 4-1 Carmarthen Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 2 Feb 2024

📅02/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.38
Over 2.5
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
4%
X/2
15%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
31%
+2.7pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.7pp
45%
Away Win
45%
-0.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-10.1pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Afan Lido EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Carmarthen Town EU Bookmakers 49%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
2.17/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/0.97
+38% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +57%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Afan Lido
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Carmarthen Town
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
45% Ball Possession 55%
5 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
30.09.2023 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 3-3 HT 1-0 Afan Lido Afan Lido GALFAW
03.02.2023 Afan Lido Afan Lido 3-0 HT 2-0 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALFAW
01.10.2022 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 0-3 HT 0-2 Afan Lido Afan Lido GALFAW
18.12.2021 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 4-0 HT 0-0 Afan Lido Afan Lido GALFAW
30.10.2021 Afan Lido Afan Lido 0-4 HT 0-0 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town GALFAW
POST-MATCH Afan Lido vs Carmarthen Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Afan Lido swept aside Carmarthen Town 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Carmarthen Town at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Afan Lido and 2.20 for Carmarthen Town.

What was the final score of Afan Lido vs Carmarthen Town?

Afan Lido 4-1 Carmarthen Town in the Wales - FAW Championship on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Afan Lido vs Carmarthen Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Carmarthen Town win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Afan Lido 34%, draw 21%, Carmarthen Town 45%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Carmarthen Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Carmarthen Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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