Caerau (Ely) 3-2 Llantwit Major — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 2 Feb 2024

Caerau (Ely)
3-2
Llantwit Major
📅02/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2023/2024

Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.89
Over 2.5
59%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.43
No
40%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
13%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
25%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.2pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.3pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+0.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
31%
+9.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
69%
-9.9pp
60%
BTTS Yes
66%
-5.9pp
40%
BTTS No
34%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Caerau (Ely) v Llantwit Major — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Llantwit Major EU Bookmakers 27%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
2.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/2.65
-3% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 399 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 5.0

Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caerau (Ely)
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Llantwit Major
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Llantwit Major 1-4 HT 1-1 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) GALFAW
POST-MATCH Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caerau (Ely) edged past Llantwit Major 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Caerau (Ely) as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

What was the final score of Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?

Caerau (Ely) 3-2 Llantwit Major in the Wales - FAW Championship on 02/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caerau (Ely) vs Llantwit Major?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caerau (Ely) win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Caerau (Ely) 50%, draw 26%, Llantwit Major 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caerau (Ely)), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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