Al Shamal 2-4 Al Ahli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Qatar League, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
42%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.82
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 26% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
21%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.9pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
41%
Away Win
40%
+1.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Shamal EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 45%
-4% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
0.88/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.62
-16% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +21%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
279 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 79%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
16.5 Crosses 11.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Shamal
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Al Ahli
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.40 xG 1.10
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
240 Passes 426
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.03.2024 Al Shamal Al Shamal 2-1 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
03.11.2023 Al Ahli Al Ahli 1-2 HT 1-1 Al Shamal Al Shamal KAT
02.04.2023 Al Ahli Al Ahli 0-1 HT 0-1 Al Shamal Al Shamal KAT
14.09.2022 Al Shamal Al Shamal 2-2 HT 2-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
25.02.2022 Al Shamal Al Shamal 3-0 HT 1-0 Al Ahli Al Ahli KAT
22.11.2021 Al Shamal Al Shamal 2-2 HT 1-2 Al Ahli Al Ahli KATYK
POST-MATCH Al Shamal vs Al Ahli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli got the better of Al Shamal 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Ahli as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Shamal had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Al Shamal and 1.00 for Al Ahli.

What was the final score of Al Shamal vs Al Ahli?

Al Shamal 2-4 Al Ahli in the Qatar League on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Shamal vs Al Ahli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahli win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Al Shamal 34%, draw 24%, Al Ahli 41%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahli), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahli) ✓ BTTS Yes
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