BFC Daugavpils 1-1 Metta / LU Riga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 27 Sep 2024

📅27/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
25%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
44%
+3.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
25%
Away Win
30%
-4.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.7pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Metta / LU Riga EU Bookmakers 33%
+26% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -10%
2.12/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.48
+56% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
330 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 71%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
15.2 Crosses 19.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Metta / LU Riga
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 1.27
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
225 Passes 337
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.07.2024 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 3-2 HT 2-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
16.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-0 HT 3-0 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
03.04.2024 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-1 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
29.09.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-2 HT 1-2 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
10.07.2023 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
18.05.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 0-0 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1-1
AWAY Metta / LU Riga
1.23 xG 0.95
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
191 Passes 377
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 22
10 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Metta / LU Riga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils and Metta / LU Riga couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was BFC Daugavpils at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 36% of the ball to Metta / LU Riga's 64%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 1.23 to 0.95.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.00 for Metta / LU Riga.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Metta / LU Riga?

BFC Daugavpils 1-1 Metta / LU Riga in the Latvia - Virsliga on 27/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Metta / LU Riga?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 47%, draw 28%, Metta / LU Riga 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (BFC Daugavpils), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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