Cherno More Varna 1-1 Septemvri Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.37
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
12%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
3%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
4%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
68%
-1.8pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.1pp
12%
Away Win
12%
-0.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.1pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 15%
+4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +18%
2.07/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.97
+1% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
408 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cherno More Varna
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.11.2024 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 1-2 HT 0-2 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
29.07.2024 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 2-0 HT 0-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
17.03.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 3-0 HT 2-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cherno More Varna
1-1
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
66% Ball Possession 34%
25 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cherno More Varna and Septemvri Sofia couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Cherno More Varna carried 67% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cherno More Varna had 66% of the ball to Septemvri Sofia's 34%, shots finished 25-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Cherno More Varna had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Cherno More Varna and 0.33 for Septemvri Sofia.

What was the final score of Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?

Cherno More Varna 1-1 Septemvri Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Cherno More Varna 67%, draw 22%, Septemvri Sofia 12%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cherno More Varna), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
27 Sep 2025
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