Penybont 1-0 Colwyn Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.9
Over 2.5
43%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
3.18
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
15%
3.33
6+ Goals
9%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 33% vs market 24.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-3.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+2.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
49%
+8.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
51%
-8.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.9pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penybont EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Colwyn Bay EU Bookmakers 23%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.93/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.74
+9% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
427 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penybont
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Colwyn Bay
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
16.03.2024 Penybont Penybont 5-0 HT 1-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
03.02.2024 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 1-2 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
25.11.2023 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay 2-1 HT 0-1 Penybont Penybont GAL
09.09.2023 Penybont Penybont 0-1 HT 0-0 Colwyn Bay Colwyn Bay GAL
POST-MATCH Penybont vs Colwyn Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont nicked a narrow win over Colwyn Bay 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Penybont and 1.00 for Colwyn Bay.

What was the final score of Penybont vs Colwyn Bay?

Penybont 1-0 Colwyn Bay in the Wales - Premier League on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penybont vs Colwyn Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Penybont 53%, draw 25%, Colwyn Bay 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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