ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-1 Sagamihara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
12%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-4.8pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.3pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagamihara EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
373 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 15.5
Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1W-3D-0L
AWAY Sagamihara
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
618 Passes 89
88% Pass Accuracy 49%
22 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2025 Sagamihara Sagamihara 1-1 HT 1-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP3
06.03.2024 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 4-1 HT 1-1 Sagamihara Sagamihara JLK
07.11.2021 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-1 HT 0-0 Sagamihara Sagamihara JAP2
07.03.2021 Sagamihara Sagamihara 0-0 HT 0-0 ThespaKusatsu Gunma ThespaKusatsu Gunma JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ThespaKusatsu Gunma
1-1
AWAY Sagamihara
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
365 Passes 296
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Crosses 16
POST-MATCH ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Sagamihara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ThespaKusatsu Gunma and Sagamihara shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was ThespaKusatsu Gunma at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, ThespaKusatsu Gunma had 55% of the ball to Sagamihara's 45%, shots finished 17-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, ThespaKusatsu Gunma had the better of it with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for ThespaKusatsu Gunma and 0.75 for Sagamihara.

What was the final score of ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Sagamihara?

ThespaKusatsu Gunma 1-1 Sagamihara in the Japan - J3 League on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ThespaKusatsu Gunma vs Sagamihara?

Before kick-off our model rated a ThespaKusatsu Gunma win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split ThespaKusatsu Gunma 52%, draw 24%, Sagamihara 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (ThespaKusatsu Gunma), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ThespaKusatsu Gunma) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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