Esenler Erokspor 2-3 Iğdır FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 27 Sep 2025

📅27/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.9
Over 2.5
55%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.7
No
36%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.37
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.57
6+ Goals
10%
14.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.04
1/2
4%
32.0
1/X
5%
13.25
X/1
14%
4.94
X/2
10%
6.53
X/X
14%
4.79
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
25.0
2/2
14%
4.68
2/X
10%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.0 — our 13% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-2.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.9pp
64%
BTTS Yes
55%
+9.0pp
36%
BTTS No
45%
-9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Iğdır FK EU Bookmakers 34%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -9%
1.35/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.34
+26% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
362 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 75%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.1
22.4 Crosses 11.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esenler Erokspor
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Iğdır FK
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.63 xG 0.70
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
264 Passes 334
74% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.02.2025 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor 3-1 HT 0-1 Iğdır FK Iğdır FK T1L
15.09.2024 Iğdır FK Iğdır FK 1-2 HT 1-0 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esenler Erokspor
2-3
AWAY Iğdır FK
0.61 xG 1.34
63% Ball Possession 37%
11 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
441 Passes 234
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Esenler Erokspor vs Iğdır FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Iğdır FK edged past Esenler Erokspor 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Esenler Erokspor at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Esenler Erokspor had 63% of the ball to Iğdır FK's 37%, shots finished 11-5, expected goals 0.61 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Esenler Erokspor had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Esenler Erokspor and 1.00 for Iğdır FK.

What was the final score of Esenler Erokspor vs Iğdır FK?

Esenler Erokspor 2-3 Iğdır FK in the Turkey - 1st Division on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esenler Erokspor vs Iğdır FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Esenler Erokspor win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Esenler Erokspor 43%, draw 29%, Iğdır FK 28%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Esenler Erokspor) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Esenler Erokspor) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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