Ümraniyespor 1-1 Çorum FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 27 Sep 2025

Ümraniyespor
1-1 HT 1-1
Çorum FK
📅27/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Turkey - 1st Division – 2025/2026

Ümraniyespor vs Çorum FK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.65
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
60%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.23
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 31% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
8.51
1/2
12%
23.4
1/X
5%
17.3
X/1
9%
10.1
X/2
19%
3.98
X/X
10%
5.16
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
29%
2.08
2/X
5%
15.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
18%
+1.3pp
20%
Draw
24%
-3.9pp
60%
Away Win
58%
+2.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.6pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ümraniyespor v Çorum FK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Çorum FK EU Bookmakers 62%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
0.93/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.25
-23% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / –
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
263 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 80%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
17.0 Crosses 16.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 0.0

Ümraniyespor vs Çorum FK Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ümraniyespor
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Çorum FK
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.07 xG 1.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
332 Passes 363
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
19 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.01.2025 Çorum FK Çorum FK 3-1 HT 1-0 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
12.08.2024 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 3-0 HT 1-0 Çorum FK Çorum FK T1L
09.02.2024 Çorum FK Çorum FK 0-1 HT 0-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
16.09.2023 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 0-3 HT 0-1 Çorum FK Çorum FK T1L

Ümraniyespor 1-1 Çorum FK — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ümraniyespor
1-1
AWAY Çorum FK
0.88 xG 1.07
32% Ball Possession 68%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 3
184 Passes 460
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 27
6 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ümraniyespor vs Çorum FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ümraniyespor and Çorum FK couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Çorum FK at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Ümraniyespor had 32% of the ball to Çorum FK's 68%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 0.88 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.50 for Çorum FK.

What was the final score of Ümraniyespor vs Çorum FK?

Ümraniyespor 1-1 Çorum FK in the Turkey - 1st Division on 27/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ümraniyespor vs Çorum FK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Çorum FK win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Ümraniyespor 20%, draw 20%, Çorum FK 60%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Çorum FK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Çorum FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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