Parma 1-1 Empoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 27 Oct 2024

Parma
1-1 HT 0-1
Empoli
📅27/10/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Parma vs Empoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
36%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.95
Over 2.5
56%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.62
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.34
6+ Goals
12%
12.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.34 — our 27% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.9
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
12.45
X/1
14%
4.87
X/2
11%
7.01
X/X
10%
4.66
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.85
2/2
19%
4.86
2/X
6%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.85 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.9pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.6pp
36%
Away Win
28%
+7.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.3pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Parma v Empoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parma EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Empoli EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -5%
1.60/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.15
+1% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 79%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
16.3 Crosses 20.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Parma vs Empoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parma
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Empoli
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.99 xG 2.01
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
276 Passes 469
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 40
10 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2019 Empoli Empoli 3-3 HT 1-2 Parma Parma İTA
30.09.2018 Parma Parma 1-0 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
17.02.2018 Empoli Empoli 4-0 HT 2-0 Parma Parma İTB
19.09.2017 Parma Parma 1-2 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTB
19.04.2015 Empoli Empoli 2-2 HT 2-1 Parma Parma İTA
23.11.2014 Parma Parma 0-2 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTA

Parma 1-1 Empoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parma
1-1
AWAY Empoli
1.74 xG 0.20
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 3
455 Passes 279
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Parma vs Empoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parma and Empoli shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (41% / 23% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Parma had 60% of the ball to Empoli's 40%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 1.74 to 0.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Empoli led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Parma and 2.17 for Empoli.

What was the final score of Parma vs Empoli?

Parma 1-1 Empoli in the Italy - Serie A on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parma vs Empoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Parma win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Parma 41%, draw 23%, Empoli 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Parma), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Parma) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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