Lazio 3-0 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 27 Oct 2024

Lazio
3-0 HT 1-0
Genoa
📅27/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.43
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.54
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.38
6+ Goals
11%
12.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 27% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.75
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.8
X/1
25%
3.49
X/2
7%
14.15
X/X
11%
5.89
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
10%
11.85
2/X
7%
19.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
65%
-12.2pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.2pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+8.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.6pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa EU Bookmakers 17%
+2% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.67/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.46
+6% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +20%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
403 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.5
19.3 Crosses 13.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Genoa
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.40 xG 0.53
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
549 Passes 352
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.04.2024 Genoa Genoa 0-1 HT 0-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
05.12.2023 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTK
27.08.2023 Lazio Lazio 0-1 HT 0-1 Genoa Genoa İTA
27.07.2022 Genoa Genoa 4-1 HT 2-1 Lazio Lazio HAZ
10.04.2022 Genoa Genoa 1-4 HT 0-2 Lazio Lazio İTA
17.12.2021 Lazio Lazio 3-1 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
3-0
AWAY Genoa
2.18 xG 0.28
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
487 Passes 277
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
39 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Genoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio swept aside Genoa 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lazio had 61% of the ball to Genoa's 39%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 2.18 to 0.28.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lazio and 1.17 for Genoa.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Genoa?

Lazio 3-0 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Genoa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lazio 53%, draw 25%, Genoa 22%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lazio) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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