LASK Linz 1-2 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.87
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.18
6+ Goals
12%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.83
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
26.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
12%
5.9
X/2
12%
5.42
X/X
11%
4.96
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
17%
3.4
2/X
7%
12.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.0 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+3.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-1.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME LASK Linz EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 42%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -9%
2.26/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.54
+74% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
284 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 73%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
21.1 Crosses 17.8
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME LASK Linz
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.72 xG 1.34
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
308 Passes 239
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
12.05.2024 LASK Linz LASK Linz 2-2 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
07.04.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 1-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
05.11.2023 LASK Linz LASK Linz 3-1 HT 2-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
05.08.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 1-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
03.06.2023 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 2-0 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
09.04.2023 LASK Linz LASK Linz 2-1 HT 0-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME LASK Linz
1-2
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.81 xG 1.10
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
268 Passes 359
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz squeezed past LASK Linz 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; Sturm Graz found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, LASK Linz had 46% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 54%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.81 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for LASK Linz and 1.50 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz?

LASK Linz 1-2 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for LASK Linz vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated a LASK Linz win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split LASK Linz 39%, draw 24%, Sturm Graz 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (LASK Linz) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (LASK Linz) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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