Palmeiras 1-3 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 27 Nov 2024

📅27/11/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.86
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
4.17
6+ Goals
10%
19.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 31% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.82
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.2
X/1
14%
4.54
X/2
11%
7.6
X/X
14%
4.13
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
9%
5.9
2/X
6%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.3pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.1pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.3pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.35/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.30
+21% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
353 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
20.7 Crosses 16.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Botafogo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.84 xG 1.65
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
340 Passes 244
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 17
30 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
22.08.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-2 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo LKU
15.08.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 2-1 HT 2-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras LKU
18.07.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
02.11.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 3-4 HT 3-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
25.06.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-1 HT 0-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
04.10.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 1-3 HT 1-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
1-3
AWAY Botafogo
1.54 xG 1.56
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
311 Passes 250
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 19
29 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo saw off Palmeiras 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Palmeiras at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Palmeiras had 55% of the ball to Botafogo's 45%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 1.54 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Palmeiras and 1.67 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Botafogo?

Palmeiras 1-3 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 27/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 48%, draw 25%, Botafogo 26%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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