Mechelen 3-1 RWDM 47 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 28 Jan 2024

Mechelen
3-1 HT 0-0
RWDM 47
📅28/01/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2023/2024

Mechelen vs RWDM 47 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.8
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.03
2-3 Goals
44%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.81
6+ Goals
12%
16.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.38
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
17%
4.07
X/2
10%
8.65
X/X
11%
4.5
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
10%
6.87
2/X
4%
14.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.0 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
52%
-2.3pp
22%
Draw
27%
-4.2pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.2pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mechelen v RWDM 47 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mechelen EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY RWDM 47 EU Bookmakers 25%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.59/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.63
-5% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
374 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 69%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
19.4 Crosses 7.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Mechelen vs RWDM 47 Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mechelen
1W-0D-1L
AWAY RWDM 47
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.48 xG 1.96
53% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
434 Passes 314
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.08.2023 RWDM 47 RWDM 47 1-0 HT 0-0 Mechelen Mechelen BEL
03.02.2021 Mechelen Mechelen 2-0 HT 1-0 RWDM 47 RWDM 47 BEK

Mechelen 3-1 RWDM 47 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mechelen
3-1
AWAY RWDM 47
4.12 xG 1.06
77% Ball Possession 23%
24 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 3
14 Corners 0
597 Passes 141
89% Pass Accuracy 68%
43 Box Touches 7
38 Crosses 5
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mechelen vs RWDM 47
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mechelen beat RWDM 47 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mechelen as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Mechelen had 77% of the ball to RWDM 47's 23%, shots finished 24-6, expected goals 4.12 to 1.06.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Mechelen and 0.50 for RWDM 47.

What was the final score of Mechelen vs RWDM 47?

Mechelen 3-1 RWDM 47 in the Belgium - Pro League on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mechelen vs RWDM 47?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mechelen win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Mechelen 49%, draw 22%, RWDM 47 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mechelen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mechelen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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