Maritimo U23 0-3 Rio Ave U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 28 Jan 2026

📅28/01/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
20%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
37%
+4.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-3.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.1pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo U23 EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave U23 EU Bookmakers 39%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.70
-32% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / -16%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
282 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo U23
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Rio Ave U23
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2025 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 2-1 Maritimo U23 Maritimo U23 UŞGA
23.09.2025 Maritimo U23 Maritimo U23 0-1 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 UŞGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo U23
0-3
AWAY Rio Ave U23
54% Ball Possession 46%
3 Total Shots 16
0 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Maritimo U23 vs Rio Ave U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Ave U23 swept aside Maritimo U23 3-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Maritimo U23 at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Maritimo U23 had 54% of the ball to Rio Ave U23's 46%, shots finished 3-16.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Rio Ave U23 led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Maritimo U23 and 1.50 for Rio Ave U23.

What was the final score of Maritimo U23 vs Rio Ave U23?

Maritimo U23 0-3 Rio Ave U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 28/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo U23 vs Rio Ave U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Maritimo U23 42%, draw 26%, Rio Ave U23 33%. The final score 0-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Maritimo U23) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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