Estrela U23 2-1 Farense U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 28 Jan 2026

📅28/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
37%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.5pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.2pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+0.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.6pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela U23 EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense U23 EU Bookmakers 39%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.29/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.24
-13% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +17%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
258 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela U23
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Farense U23
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
45% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
19.11.2025 Farense U23 Farense U23 4-0 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 UŞGB
21.10.2025 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 0-2 Farense U23 Farense U23 UŞGB
06.11.2024 Farense U23 Farense U23 2-2 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 UŞGB
21.08.2024 Estrela U23 Estrela U23 2-1 Farense U23 Farense U23 UŞGB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela U23
2-1
AWAY Farense U23
31% Ball Possession 69%
5 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estrela U23 vs Farense U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela U23 edged past Farense U23 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 24% / 37% — and on the day Estrela U23 made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Estrela U23 had 31% of the ball to Farense U23's 69%, shots finished 5-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Farense U23 led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Estrela U23 and 2.25 for Farense U23.

What was the final score of Estrela U23 vs Farense U23?

Estrela U23 2-1 Farense U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 28/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela U23 vs Farense U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Estrela U23 39%, draw 24%, Farense U23 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estrela U23) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Estrela U23)
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