Milan U19 2-2 Sporting Braga U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA - Youth League, 28 Feb 2024

📅28/02/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
2.21
Over
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
26%
4.5
2-3
38%
1.9
4-5
27%
2.91
6+
9%
8.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.86
1/2
5%
30.0
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
16%
5.05
X/2
8%
6.91
X/X
12%
5.31
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
17%
4.45
2/X
5%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
44%
Home Win
45%
-0.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.3pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan U19 The Market 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga U19 The Market 33%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+69% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
378 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.0 Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan U19
2-2
AWAY Sporting Braga U19
2.06 xG 1.31
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 10
2 Corners 4
192 Passes 400
69% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 19
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Milan U19 vs Sporting Braga U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan U19 and Sporting Braga U19 couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Milan U19 at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Milan U19 had 36% of the ball to Sporting Braga U19's 64%, shots finished 6-15, expected goals 2.06 to 1.31.

What was the final score of Milan U19 vs Sporting Braga U19?

Milan U19 2-2 Sporting Braga U19 in the UEFA - Youth League on 28/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan U19 vs Sporting Braga U19?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Milan U19 44%, draw 25%, Sporting Braga U19 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Milan U19) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milan U19) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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