Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Melbourne City
AVUS
3-0
HT 1-0
Wellington Phoenix
AVUK
4-1
HT 1-0
Wellington Phoenix
AVUS
1-3
HT 1-1
Melbourne City
AVUS
Wellington Phoenix 0-1 Melbourne City — Actual Match Statistics
Melbourne City edged past Wellington Phoenix 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 40% of the ball to Melbourne City's 60%, shots finished 5-19, expected goals 0.36 to 1.39.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 2.17 for Melbourne City.
What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City?
Wellington Phoenix 0-1 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 28/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City?
Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 32%, draw 25%, Melbourne City 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.