Valenciennes 2-1 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 28 Feb 2026

📅28/02/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.65
2-3 Goals
43%
1.7
4-5 Goals
20%
3.92
6+ Goals
10%
18.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.21
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
16%
4.91
X/2
14%
6.34
X/X
12%
4.18
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
28.0
2/2
12%
4.77
2/X
8%
13.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 7% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.1pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+4.8pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valenciennes EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 34%
-13% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.26/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.84
+0% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -35%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valenciennes
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Caen
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.98 xG 1.51
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
289 Passes 363
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.09.2025 Caen Caen 0-0 HT 0-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR3
17.05.2024 Caen Caen 3-0 HT 1-0 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
28.10.2023 Valenciennes Valenciennes 2-2 HT 2-0 Caen Caen FR2
18.03.2023 Caen Caen 2-1 HT 1-1 Valenciennes Valenciennes FR2
05.11.2022 Valenciennes Valenciennes 1-1 HT 1-1 Caen Caen FR2
15.03.2022 Valenciennes Valenciennes 1-1 HT 1-1 Caen Caen FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valenciennes
2-1
AWAY Caen
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Valenciennes vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valenciennes squeezed past Caen 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Valenciennes as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Valenciennes had 42% of the ball to Caen's 58%, shots finished 14-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Caen led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Valenciennes and 1.50 for Caen.

What was the final score of Valenciennes vs Caen?

Valenciennes 2-1 Caen in the France - National League 1 on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valenciennes vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valenciennes win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Valenciennes 42%, draw 27%, Caen 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valenciennes), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valenciennes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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