Rot-Weiss Erfurt 1-1 Greifswalder SV — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 28 Mar 2024

📅28/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.67
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
7%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
34%
-5.1pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.9pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.6pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rot-Weiss Erfurt EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Greifswalder SV EU Bookmakers 45%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +31% / +31%
1.33/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.83/0.71
-10% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +94%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
295 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rot-Weiss Erfurt
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Greifswalder SV
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2023 Greifswalder SV Greifswalder SV 1-1 HT 0-1 Rot-Weiss Erfurt Rot-Weiss Erfurt ALMBÖL
16.04.2023 Rot-Weiss Erfurt Rot-Weiss Erfurt 4-0 HT 1-0 Greifswalder SV Greifswalder SV ALMBÖL
29.10.2022 Greifswalder SV Greifswalder SV 0-2 HT 0-1 Rot-Weiss Erfurt Rot-Weiss Erfurt ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Rot-Weiss Erfurt vs Greifswalder SV
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rot-Weiss Erfurt and Greifswalder SV shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Greifswalder SV at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Rot-Weiss Erfurt had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Rot-Weiss Erfurt and 0.33 for Greifswalder SV.

What was the final score of Rot-Weiss Erfurt vs Greifswalder SV?

Rot-Weiss Erfurt 1-1 Greifswalder SV in the Germany - Regional League on 28/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rot-Weiss Erfurt vs Greifswalder SV?

Before kick-off our model rated an Greifswalder SV win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Rot-Weiss Erfurt 29%, draw 30%, Greifswalder SV 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Greifswalder SV) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Greifswalder SV) ✓ Under 2.5
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