Caerau (Ely) 0-1 Penrhiwceiber Rangers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.53
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
30%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
Over 2.5
54%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.56
No
36%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
61%
-18.9pp
28%
Draw
21%
+6.9pp
30%
Away Win
18%
+12.0pp
64%
BTTS Yes
60%
+3.6pp
36%
BTTS No
40%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caerau (Ely) EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Penrhiwceiber Rangers EU Bookmakers 21%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
2.39/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.50
+2% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +40%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
446 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caerau (Ely)
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Penrhiwceiber Rangers
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
26.12.2024 Penrhiwceiber Rangers 0-4 HT 0-1 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) GALFAW
POST-MATCH Caerau (Ely) vs Penrhiwceiber Rangers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penrhiwceiber Rangers squeezed past Caerau (Ely) 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Caerau (Ely) at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (64%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Caerau (Ely) vs Penrhiwceiber Rangers?

Caerau (Ely) 0-1 Penrhiwceiber Rangers in the Wales - FAW Championship on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caerau (Ely) vs Penrhiwceiber Rangers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caerau (Ely) win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Caerau (Ely) 42%, draw 28%, Penrhiwceiber Rangers 30%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Caerau (Ely)) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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