Kecskemeti TE 1-3 Debrecen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.52
6+ Goals
11%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 28% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
36%
Away Win
36%
-0.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.9pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kecskemeti TE EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Debrecen EU Bookmakers 40%
+9% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -3%
1.55/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.50
-8% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -9%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
268 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 77%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
22.2 Crosses 19.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kecskemeti TE
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Debrecen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.98 xG 1.02
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
305 Passes 287
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.11.2024 Debrecen Debrecen 2-2 HT 1-1 Kecskemeti TE Kecskemeti TE MAC
09.08.2024 Kecskemeti TE Kecskemeti TE 1-1 HT 1-1 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
13.04.2024 Debrecen Debrecen 1-0 HT 0-0 Kecskemeti TE Kecskemeti TE MAC
17.12.2023 Kecskemeti TE Kecskemeti TE 1-1 HT 0-1 Debrecen Debrecen MAC
03.09.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 2-0 HT 0-0 Kecskemeti TE Kecskemeti TE MAC
18.03.2023 Debrecen Debrecen 1-2 HT 0-0 Kecskemeti TE Kecskemeti TE MAC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kecskemeti TE
1-3
AWAY Debrecen
1.10 xG 1.59
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
433 Passes 270
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 23
23 Crosses 17
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kecskemeti TE vs Debrecen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Debrecen beat Kecskemeti TE 3-1 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Debrecen made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Kecskemeti TE had 60% of the ball to Debrecen's 40%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.10 to 1.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Debrecen led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kecskemeti TE and 1.33 for Debrecen.

What was the final score of Kecskemeti TE vs Debrecen?

Kecskemeti TE 1-3 Debrecen in the Hungary - NB I on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kecskemeti TE vs Debrecen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kecskemeti TE win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Kecskemeti TE 37%, draw 27%, Debrecen 36%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kecskemeti TE) ✗ Under 2.5
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