Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Manisa FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
16%
4.29
6+ Goals
8%
20.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 35% vs market 29.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.31
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.15
X/1
17%
4.11
X/2
10%
9.37
X/X
16%
4.6
2/1
4%
26.5
2/2
9%
8.04
2/X
5%
16.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-5.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.2pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Manisa FK EU Bookmakers 23%
+6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +8%
1.40/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.56
+10% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
326 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
18.3 Crosses 15.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzurumspor FK
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Manisa FK
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.07 xG 1.20
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
275 Passes 374
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.11.2024 Manisa FK Manisa FK 2-0 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
27.01.2024 Manisa FK Manisa FK 0-2 HT 0-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
25.08.2023 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-2 HT 0-1 Manisa FK Manisa FK T1L
16.04.2023 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-3 HT 0-0 Manisa FK Manisa FK T1L
19.11.2022 Manisa FK Manisa FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
06.02.2022 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-0 HT 1-0 Manisa FK Manisa FK T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzurumspor FK
1-0
AWAY Manisa FK
1.68 xG 0.17
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 1
275 Passes 182
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
30 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Erzurumspor FK vs Manisa FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzurumspor FK squeezed past Manisa FK 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Erzurumspor FK as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Erzurumspor FK had 57% of the ball to Manisa FK's 43%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 1.68 to 0.17 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Erzurumspor FK's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manisa FK led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.17 for Manisa FK.

What was the final score of Erzurumspor FK vs Manisa FK?

Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Manisa FK in the Turkey - 1st Division on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzurumspor FK vs Manisa FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzurumspor FK win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Erzurumspor FK 48%, draw 27%, Manisa FK 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzurumspor FK), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Erzurumspor FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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