Montevideo Wanderers 1-1 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
22%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-1.9pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+0.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montevideo Wanderers EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -10%
1.37/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.67
+6% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -28%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montevideo Wanderers
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Progreso
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
14.07.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 4-2 HT 2-1 Progreso Progreso URU
04.05.2024 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 2-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
15.11.2021 Progreso Progreso 3-1 HT 2-1 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers URU
31.07.2021 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 2-0 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
22.03.2021 Montevideo Wanderers Montevideo Wanderers 1-3 HT 1-1 Progreso Progreso URU
FAQ Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Montevideo Wanderers and Progreso shared the points in a 1-1 draw in the Uruguay - Premier League on 28 Mar 2025. Half-time: 0-1.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 44% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montevideo Wanderers have the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Montevideo Wanderers and 1.33 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso?

Montevideo Wanderers 1-1 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Montevideo Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Montevideo Wanderers 45%, draw 28%, Progreso 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Montevideo Wanderers), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Montevideo Wanderers) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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