Smiltene 3-3 JFK Ventspils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 28 Mar 2026

📅28/03/2026 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.25
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.7pp
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
-1.7pp
41%
BTTS No
39%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smiltene EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY JFK Ventspils EU Bookmakers 39%
-27% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.30/2.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.95
-14% / -54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +64%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
305 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smiltene
1W-2D-3L
AWAY JFK Ventspils
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
3 Corners 3
20.09.2025 Smiltene Smiltene 2-2 HT 1-0 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils LET1
11.05.2025 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils 2-1 HT 2-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
31.08.2024 Smiltene Smiltene 0-2 HT 0-2 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils LET1
05.05.2024 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils 2-0 HT 1-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
27.08.2023 Smiltene Smiltene 1-1 HT 0-1 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils LET1
29.04.2023 JFK Ventspils JFK Ventspils 0-1 HT 0-1 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
POST-MATCH Smiltene vs JFK Ventspils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smiltene and JFK Ventspils couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged both teams to score (59%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, JFK Ventspils led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Smiltene and 1.50 for JFK Ventspils.

What was the final score of Smiltene vs JFK Ventspils?

Smiltene 3-3 JFK Ventspils in the Latvia - 1st Division on 28/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smiltene vs JFK Ventspils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Smiltene win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Smiltene 38%, draw 24%, JFK Ventspils 38%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
LET1 More Latvia - 1st Division
28 Mar 2026
19:00 Rezekne / BJSS vs Leevon / PPK Analysis →