Alianza 3-1 Fuerte San Francisco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — El Salvador - Primera Liga, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.47
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
19%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.82
Over 2.5
41%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
64%
-5.9pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.9pp
19%
Away Win
12%
+6.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
51%
+8.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
49%
-8.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.7pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Fuerte San Francisco EU Bookmakers 15%
-8% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.74/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.54/1.67
+1% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
396 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Fuerte San Francisco
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 9
5 Yellow Cards 3
11.03.2024 Fuerte San Francisco Fuerte San Francisco 1-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Alianza ELSAL
03.12.2023 Fuerte San Francisco Fuerte San Francisco 1-1 HT 1-1 Alianza Alianza ELSAL
30.11.2023 Alianza Alianza 4-0 HT 2-0 Fuerte San Francisco Fuerte San Francisco ELSAL
07.10.2023 Alianza Alianza 1-2 HT 0-2 Fuerte San Francisco Fuerte San Francisco ELSAL
14.08.2023 Fuerte San Francisco Fuerte San Francisco 0-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Alianza ELSAL
POST-MATCH Alianza vs Fuerte San Francisco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza saw off Fuerte San Francisco 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Alianza as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Alianza and 0.80 for Fuerte San Francisco.

What was the final score of Alianza vs Fuerte San Francisco?

Alianza 3-1 Fuerte San Francisco in the El Salvador - Primera Liga on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza vs Fuerte San Francisco?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Alianza 58%, draw 23%, Fuerte San Francisco 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alianza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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