Gamba Osaka 1-2 Kashima Antlers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.51
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.72
6+ Goals
9%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.76
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.2
X/1
12%
5.07
X/2
11%
5.42
X/X
13%
3.97
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
15%
4.13
2/X
7%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.0pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.6pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.6pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 37%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +5%
1.33/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/0.95
-3% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +41%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
328 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 77%
22.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
17.0 Crosses 17.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gamba Osaka
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Kashima Antlers
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.66 xG 0.89
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
329 Passes 342
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.06.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-1 HT 2-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
29.04.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 4-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
05.11.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 0-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
13.07.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 2-0 HT 0-0 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JPK
18.05.2022 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-3 HT 0-1 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JLK
26.03.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 4-1 HT 0-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gamba Osaka
1-2
AWAY Kashima Antlers
54% Ball Possession 46%
3 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Gamba Osaka vs Kashima Antlers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers nicked a narrow win over Gamba Osaka 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 33% — and on the day Kashima Antlers made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gamba Osaka had 54% of the ball to Kashima Antlers's 46%, shots finished 3-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashima Antlers led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Gamba Osaka and 2.33 for Kashima Antlers.

What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Kashima Antlers?

Gamba Osaka 1-2 Kashima Antlers in the Japan - J1 League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gamba Osaka vs Kashima Antlers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gamba Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Gamba Osaka 39%, draw 27%, Kashima Antlers 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gamba Osaka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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