Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.62
Over 2.5
37%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.54
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.65
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.54 — our 36% vs market 33.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.59
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.95
X/1
21%
4.0
X/2
11%
7.88
X/X
13%
4.12
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
10%
6.65
2/X
7%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-3.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.9pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.9pp
37%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.5pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +13%
1.77/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.04
+18% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +51%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
413 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 77%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
16.8 Crosses 15.3
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.54 xG 1.66
55% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
368 Passes 311
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.08.2023 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 1-0 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
02.08.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-0 HT 1-0 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JPK
09.04.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-0 HT 0-0 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
10.08.2022 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 3-0 HT 2-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
06.08.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 3-0 HT 2-0 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
03.08.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-1 HT 0-1 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds
2-1
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Urawa Red Diamonds vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Urawa Red Diamonds nicked a narrow win over Nagoya Grampus 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Urawa Red Diamonds as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Urawa Red Diamonds had 48% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 52%, shots finished 11-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Urawa Red Diamonds and 1.17 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Urawa Red Diamonds vs Nagoya Grampus?

Urawa Red Diamonds 2-1 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Urawa Red Diamonds vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Urawa Red Diamonds win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Urawa Red Diamonds 46%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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