Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Apr 2024

Kashiwa Reysol
1-1 HT 1-1
Sagan Tosu
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Kashiwa Reysol vs Sagan Tosu Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.57
6+ Goals
9%
14.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 30% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.18
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.35
X/1
21%
3.86
X/2
10%
9.48
X/X
11%
5.11
2/1
10%
23.6
2/2
7%
7.52
2/X
9%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.8pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.9pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.4pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kashiwa Reysol v Sagan Tosu — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashiwa Reysol EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 23%
-15% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +5%
1.55/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.78
-16% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -1%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
429 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 73%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
23.5 Crosses 15.0
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.6

Kashiwa Reysol vs Sagan Tosu Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.28 xG 1.29
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
278 Passes 493
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 2-2 HT 2-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
15.04.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 0-0 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
10.07.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-1 HT 0-1 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JAP
29.04.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-4 HT 0-2 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
13.04.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-3 HT 0-2 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol JLK
26.03.2022 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JLK

Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 Sagan Tosu — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashiwa Reysol
1-1
AWAY Sagan Tosu
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Kashiwa Reysol vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashiwa Reysol and Sagan Tosu couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Kashiwa Reysol at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Kashiwa Reysol had 56% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 44%, shots finished 18-3.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashiwa Reysol had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.50 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Kashiwa Reysol vs Sagan Tosu?

Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashiwa Reysol vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Kashiwa Reysol 50%, draw 27%, Sagan Tosu 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kashiwa Reysol) ✓ Under 2.5
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