Albirex Niigata (K) 2-1 JEF United (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - WE League Women's, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.9
Draw
18%
2.88
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.48
Over 2.5
48%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.19
No
49%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
24%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
14%
2/2
9%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Albirex Niigata (K) win — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
49%
+9.8pp
18%
Draw
31%
-13.1pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
64%
-11.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
36%
+11.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
42%
+9.1pp
49%
BTTS No
58%
-9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Albirex Niigata (K) EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY JEF United (K) EU Bookmakers 23%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.66/0.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
-51% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +0%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
374 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Albirex Niigata (K)
0W-1D-0L
AWAY JEF United (K)
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
20.03.2024 JEF United (K) JEF United (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata (K) Albirex Niigata (K) JWEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Albirex Niigata (K)
2-1
AWAY JEF United (K)
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Albirex Niigata (K) vs JEF United (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata (K) edged past JEF United (K) 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Albirex Niigata (K) as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Albirex Niigata (K) had 50% of the ball to JEF United (K)'s 50%, shots finished 17-11.

What was the final score of Albirex Niigata (K) vs JEF United (K)?

Albirex Niigata (K) 2-1 JEF United (K) in the Japan - WE League Women's on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Albirex Niigata (K) vs JEF United (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Albirex Niigata (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Albirex Niigata (K) 59%, draw 18%, JEF United (K) 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Albirex Niigata (K)), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Albirex Niigata (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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